Real de Minas 1–0 CD Honduras: Result & Stats

Real de Minas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CD Honduras

8/4/2019

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 2Estadio Marcelo Tinoco (Danlí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Real de Minas48%

×Draw24%

CD Honduras28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real de MinasExpected goals in this matchCD Honduras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.25

Real de Minas

1.70

CD Honduras

1.25

Real de Minas creates 36% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 88 away

1.17

creates per match

1.01

1.48

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Real de Minas

1.17

CD Honduras

1.01

allows per match

Real de Minas

1.48

CD Honduras

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real de Minas+0.00on par

CD Honduras+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real de Minas ↓

CD Honduras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real de Minas or draw

72%

Real de Minas or CD Honduras

76%

Draw or CD Honduras

52%

Winning margin

Real de Minas wins by 2+

25%

CD Honduras wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real de Minas 1+ goals

82%

Real de Minas 2+ goals

51%

Real de Minas 3+ goals

24%

CD Honduras 1+ goals

71%

CD Honduras 2+ goals

36%

CD Honduras 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real de Minas (draw refunded)

63%

CD Honduras (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real de Minas at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

CD Honduras away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.22 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real de Minas attack 1.17 + CD Honduras defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.70

CD Honduras attack 1.01 + Real de Minas defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real de Minas scores more

48%

level

24%

CD Honduras scores more

28%

Real de Minas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real de Minas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff