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Real Cartagena vs Huila — Copa Colombia 2019

Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Huila
Huila
3/11/2021Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Real Cartagena48%
×Draw27%
Huila25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Cartagena
1.41
Huila
0.94

Real Cartagena creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Real Cartagena
1.31
Huila
1.25

allows per match

Real Cartagena
0.62
Huila
1.50

finishing

Real Cartagena+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Cartagena ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Cartagena or draw
75%
Real Cartagena or Huila
73%
Draw or Huila
52%

Winning margin

Real Cartagena wins by 2+
23%
Huila wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Cartagena 1+ goals
76%
Real Cartagena 2+ goals
41%
Real Cartagena 3+ goals
17%
Huila 1+ goals
61%
Huila 2+ goals
24%
Huila 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)
66%
Huila (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Cartagena at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Huila away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Cartagena attack 1.31 + Huila defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Huila attack 1.25 + Real Cartagena defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Cartagena scores more
48%
level
27%
Huila scores more
25%

Real Cartagena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Cartagena vs Huila

Real Cartagena beat Huila 2-1 in Copa Colombia on March 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León in Cartagena de Indias.