Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Cartagena vs America de Cali — Copa Colombia 2019

Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
Preview
01:00
America de Cali
America de Cali
7/30/2026Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Play-offs
47%
Real Cartagena
model favours
47%29%23%

America de Cali score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Cartagena47%
×Draw29%
America de Cali23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Cartagena
1.25
America de Cali
0.78

Real Cartagena creates 60% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Cartagena
1.31
America de Cali
0.94

allows per match

Real Cartagena
0.62
America de Cali
1.18

finishing

Real Cartagena+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Cartagena ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Cartagena or draw
77%
Real Cartagena or America de Cali
71%
Draw or America de Cali
53%

Winning margin

Real Cartagena wins by 2+
22%
America de Cali wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Cartagena 1+ goals
71%
Real Cartagena 2+ goals
36%
Real Cartagena 3+ goals
13%
America de Cali 1+ goals
54%
America de Cali 2+ goals
18%
America de Cali 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)
67%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Cartagena at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Cartagena attack 1.31 + America de Cali defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

America de Cali attack 0.94 + Real Cartagena defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Cartagena scores more
47%
level
29%
America de Cali scores more
23%

Real Cartagena at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of America de Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cartagena
DLWWL
Cali
LWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Cartagena host America de Cali

July 30, 2026: Real Cartagena take on America de Cali in Copa Colombia. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.