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Real Betis W vs Valencia W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Betis W
Real Betis W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Valencia W
Valencia W
11/11/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 7Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Real Betis W43%
×Draw25%
Valencia W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis W
1.52
Valencia W
1.27

Real Betis W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 105 away

creates per match

Real Betis W
1.14
Valencia W
0.94

allows per match

Real Betis W
1.61
Valencia W
1.91

finishing

Real Betis W+0.00on par
Valencia W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis W ↓

Valencia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Betis W or draw
68%
Real Betis W or Valencia W
75%
Draw or Valencia W
57%

Winning margin

Real Betis W wins by 2+
21%
Valencia W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Betis W 1+ goals
78%
Real Betis W 2+ goals
45%
Real Betis W 3+ goals
20%
Valencia W 1+ goals
72%
Valencia W 2+ goals
36%
Valencia W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Betis W (draw refunded)
58%
Valencia W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

Valencia W away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis W attack 1.14 + Valencia W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

Valencia W attack 0.94 + Real Betis W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Betis W scores more
43%
level
25%
Valencia W scores more
32%

Real Betis W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Betis W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Betis W vs Valencia W

Real Betis W beat Valencia W 2-1 in Primera División Femenina on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.