Real Betis W 1–1 Sporting Huelva W: Result & Stats

Real Betis W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Huelva W

12/14/2019

Primera División Femenina · Round 13Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Real Betis W45%

×Draw25%

Sporting Huelva W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis WExpected goals in this matchSporting Huelva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.17

Real Betis W

1.52

Sporting Huelva W

1.17

Real Betis W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 89 away

1.14

creates per match

0.73

1.61

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Real Betis W

1.14

Sporting Huelva W

0.73

allows per match

Real Betis W

1.61

Sporting Huelva W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis W+0.00on par

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis W ↓

Sporting Huelva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Betis W or draw

71%

Real Betis W or Sporting Huelva W

75%

Draw or Sporting Huelva W

55%

Winning margin

Real Betis W wins by 2+

23%

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Betis W 1+ goals

78%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

45%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

20%

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

69%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

33%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

61%

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

Sporting Huelva W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis W attack 1.14 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.73 + Real Betis W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Betis W scores more

45%

level

25%

Sporting Huelva W scores more

29%

Real Betis W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Betis W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff