Réal Bamako 1–0 Onze Créateurs: Result & Stats

Réal Bamako

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Onze Créateurs

1/26/2024

Première Division · Round 15Terrain ASB

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Réal Bamako41%

×Draw31%

Onze Créateurs28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Réal BamakoExpected goals in this matchOnze Créateurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.83

Réal Bamako

1.08

Onze Créateurs

0.83

Réal Bamako creates 30% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 97 away

1.31

creates per match

0.96

0.70

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Réal Bamako

1.31

Onze Créateurs

0.96

allows per match

Réal Bamako

0.70

Onze Créateurs

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Onze Créateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Bamako ↓

Onze Créateurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Réal Bamako or draw

72%

Réal Bamako or Onze Créateurs

69%

Draw or Onze Créateurs

59%

Winning margin

Réal Bamako wins by 2+

17%

Onze Créateurs wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Réal Bamako 1+ goals

66%

Réal Bamako 2+ goals

29%

Réal Bamako 3+ goals

10%

Onze Créateurs 1+ goals

56%

Onze Créateurs 2+ goals

20%

Onze Créateurs 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)

60%

Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Bamako at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.70 · 96 matches

Onze Créateurs away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Bamako attack 1.31 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.08

Onze Créateurs attack 0.96 + Réal Bamako defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Réal Bamako scores more

41%

level

31%

Onze Créateurs scores more

28%

Réal Bamako at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff