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Real Avilés vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Avilés
Real Avilés
Preview
16:00
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
10/25/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta
39%
UD Logroñés
model favours
34%27%39%

Real Avilés and UD Logroñés have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Real Avilés34%
×Draw27%
UD Logroñés39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Avilés
1.19
UD Logroñés
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Real Avilés
1.05
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Real Avilés
1.53
UD Logroñés
1.33

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw
61%
Real Avilés or UD Logroñés
73%
Draw or UD Logroñés
66%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+
14%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals
70%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
33%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
12%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
72%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
37%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)
47%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.05 + UD Logroñés defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Real Avilés defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Avilés scores more
34%
level
27%
UD Logroñés scores more
39%

UD Logroñés at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Avilés
DLLDD
Logroñés
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Avilés vs UD Logroñés — Match Preview

Real Avilés face UD Logroñés on October 25, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Avilés host UD Logroñés at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.