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Real Avilés vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Avilés
Real Avilés
Preview
16:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
1/17/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta
39%
Real Avilés
model favours
39%26%34%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Avilés39%
×Draw26%
Real Unión34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Avilés
1.35
Real Unión
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

creates per match

Real Avilés
1.05
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Real Avilés
1.53
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw
66%
Real Avilés or Real Unión
74%
Draw or Real Unión
61%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+
18%
Real Unión wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals
74%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
39%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
15%
Real Unión 1+ goals
71%
Real Unión 2+ goals
36%
Real Unión 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)
53%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.05 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Real Avilés defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Avilés scores more
39%
level
26%
Real Unión scores more
34%

Real Avilés at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running
  • Real Avilés and Real Unión have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Avilés
DLLDD
Unión
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Avilés face Real Unión (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Real Avilés hosting Real Unión. Match starts January 17, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Real Avilés host Real Unión at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.