Real Avilés vs Cultural Leonesa

Real Avilés

Preview

15:00

Cultural Leonesa

4/11/2027

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta

40%

Cultural Leonesa

model favours

33%27%40%

Real Avilés and Cultural Leonesa have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Avilés33%

×Draw27%

Cultural Leonesa40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real AvilésExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.34

Real Avilés

1.18

Cultural Leonesa

1.34

Cultural Leonesa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

1.05

creates per match

1.16

1.53

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Real Avilés

1.05

Cultural Leonesa

1.16

allows per match

Real Avilés

1.53

Cultural Leonesa

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw

60%

Real Avilés or Cultural Leonesa

73%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

67%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+

14%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals

69%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

33%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

12%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

74%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

39%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

45%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.05 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Real Avilés defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Avilés scores more

33%

level

27%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

40%

Cultural Leonesa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Avilés

DLLDD

Leonesa

DLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff