Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Avilés vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Avilés
Real Avilés
Preview
15:00
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
4/25/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta
37%
Athletic Club II
model favours
36%27%37%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Avilés36%
×Draw27%
Athletic Club II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Avilés
1.25
Athletic Club II
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

creates per match

Real Avilés
1.05
Athletic Club II
1.02

allows per match

Real Avilés
1.53
Athletic Club II
1.45

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw
63%
Real Avilés or Athletic Club II
73%
Draw or Athletic Club II
64%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+
16%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals
71%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
36%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
13%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
72%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
36%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)
49%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.05 + Athletic Club II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Athletic Club II attack 1.02 + Real Avilés defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Avilés scores more
36%
level
27%
Athletic Club II scores more
37%

Athletic Club II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Avilés
DLLDD
II
LWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Avilés host Athletic Club II

April 25, 2027: Real Avilés take on Athletic Club II in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Avilés host Athletic Club II at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.