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Real Avilés vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Avilés
Real Avilés
Preview
16:00
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
2/6/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta
41%
Real Avilés
model favours
41%27%32%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Avilés41%
×Draw27%
Arenas Getxo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Avilés
1.36
Arenas Getxo
1.16

Real Avilés creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Avilés
1.05
Arenas Getxo
0.79

allows per match

Real Avilés
1.53
Arenas Getxo
1.68

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw
68%
Real Avilés or Arenas Getxo
73%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
59%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+
19%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals
74%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
39%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
16%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
69%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
32%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)
56%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.05 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.36

Arenas Getxo attack 0.79 + Real Avilés defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Avilés scores more
41%
level
27%
Arenas Getxo scores more
32%

Real Avilés at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Avilés
DLLDD
Getxo
WDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Avilés vs Arenas Getxo — Match Preview

Real Avilés face Arenas Getxo on February 6, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Avilés host Arenas Getxo at Estadio Roman Suarez Puerta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.