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Reading vs Wycombe — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wycombe
Wycombe
Lucas João 63'
10/20/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Reading47%
×Draw25%
Wycombe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.58
Wycombe
1.15

Reading creates 37% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 23 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Wycombe
0.96

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Wycombe
1.78

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw
72%
Reading or Wycombe
75%
Draw or Wycombe
53%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
24%
Wycombe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
79%
Reading 2+ goals
47%
Reading 3+ goals
21%
Wycombe 1+ goals
68%
Wycombe 2+ goals
32%
Wycombe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
63%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Wycombe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Wycombe defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Wycombe attack 0.96 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Reading scores more
47%
level
25%
Wycombe scores more
28%

Reading at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
O. EjariaReadingReading · M
7.9

Match Events

35'
Lucas João
57'
Tomás Esteves← T. Holmes
57'
Alfa Semedo← Y. Meïté
63'
Lucas João↳ L. Moore
64'
F. Onyedinma← S. Kashket
68'
A. Akinfenwa← A. Samuel
78'
Andy Rinomhota
80'
A. Mehmeti← M. Bloomfield
89'
T. Mcintyre← M. Olise

Possession

65%Reading

Shots

5Reading

Pass accuracy

59%Reading

Statistics

ReadingWycombe
Overview
65%Possession35%
5Total Shots10
2Corners1
12Fouls17
Shots
5Total Shots10
1On Target3
4Off Target7
0Blocked0
4Inside Box3
1Outside Box7
Passing
65%Possession35%
478Total Passes242
367Accurate Passes129
77%Pass Accuracy53%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls17
2Yellow Cards0
3Offsides0

Championship: Reading 1–0 Wycombe

Reading beat Wycombe 1-0 in Championship on October 20, 2020.

Goals: Lucas João (63').

Reading controlled possession (65%) and registered 5 shots to 10.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.