Reading vs Notts County — League One 2018
Notts County score first in only 8% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Reading45%
Notts County29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Reading creates 32% more chances
Season form · 69 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Reading ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Reading at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches
Notts County away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Reading attack 1.58 + Notts County defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43
Notts County attack 1.11 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Reading at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches
- Reading and Notts County have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings between these teams
Lincoln
Cardiff
Bolton
Stockport County
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield Town
WycombeReading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Barnsley
Wigan
Burton Albion
Peterborough
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter City
Port Vale
Rotherham
NorthamptonIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Reading host Notts County on Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Reading face Notts County (League One)
League One returns with Reading hosting Notts County. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Reading host Notts County at Select Car Leasing Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.