Reading 1–0 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

1 – 0

Lincoln

7/10/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bearwood Park Training Facility

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Reading30%

×Draw31%

Lincoln39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.08

Reading

0.92

Lincoln

1.08

Lincoln creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

0.50

1.67

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Reading

1.00

Lincoln

0.50

allows per match

Reading

1.67

Lincoln

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Reading or draw

61%

Reading or Lincoln

69%

Draw or Lincoln

70%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

11%

Lincoln wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

60%

Reading 2+ goals

23%

Reading 3+ goals

7%

Lincoln 1+ goals

66%

Lincoln 2+ goals

29%

Lincoln 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

44%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Lincoln away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.00 + Lincoln defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Lincoln attack 0.50 + Reading defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reading scores more

30%

level

31%

Lincoln scores more

39%

Lincoln at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff