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Reading vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
7/7/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading44%
×Draw25%
Huddersfield30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.52
Huddersfield
1.21

Reading creates 26% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 120 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Huddersfield
1.07

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Huddersfield
1.67

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw
70%
Reading or Huddersfield
75%
Draw or Huddersfield
56%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
22%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
78%
Reading 2+ goals
45%
Reading 3+ goals
20%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
70%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
34%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
59%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Huddersfield defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Huddersfield attack 1.07 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reading scores more
44%
level
25%
Huddersfield scores more
30%

Reading at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
RafaelReadingReading · G
8.0

Match Events

20'
Yakou Meite
39'
Harry Toffolo
50'
Jon Gorenc Stanković
66'
M. Olise← G. Puşcaş
66'
L. O'Brien← J. Hogg
72'
E. Kachunga← S. Mounié
72'
A. Pritchard← E. Smith Rowe
86'
G. McCleary← Pelé
86'
L. Boyé← J. Obita
86'
C. Gunter← G. Osho
90+1'
C. Quaner← C. Willock
90+1'
D. Duhaney← A. King

Possession

38%Reading

Shots

7Reading

Pass accuracy

47%Reading

Statistics

ReadingHuddersfield
Overview
38%Possession62%
7Total Shots11
4Corners2
14Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots11
2On Target3
3Off Target5
2Blocked3
3Inside Box7
4Outside Box4
Passing
38%Possession62%
297Total Passes489
212Accurate Passes397
71%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Reading vs Huddersfield

Reading and Huddersfield drew 0-0 in Championship on July 7, 2020.

Huddersfield controlled possession (62%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.