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Reading vs Derby — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Derby
Derby
Y. Meïté 86' (pen)
Lucas João 58'
C. Adam 5' (pen)
12/21/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading44%
×Draw25%
Derby31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.50
Derby
1.21

Reading creates 24% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 142 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Derby
1.07

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Derby
1.63

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw
69%
Reading or Derby
75%
Draw or Derby
56%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
22%
Derby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
78%
Reading 2+ goals
44%
Reading 3+ goals
19%
Derby 1+ goals
70%
Derby 2+ goals
34%
Derby 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
59%
Derby (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Derby away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Derby defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Derby attack 1.07 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reading scores more
44%
level
25%
Derby scores more
31%

Reading at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
Lucas JoãoReadingReading · F
8.1

Match Events

4'
Scott Malone
5'
C. AdamPenalty
6'
M. Lowe← C. Martin
36'
Tom Lawrence
53'
J. Swift← A. Rinomhota
55'
Curtis Davies
55'
Jason Knight
58'
Lucas João↳ J. Swift
60'
Max Lowe
62'
Charlie Adam
66'
Pelé← C. Adam
70'
L. Sibley← K. Bielik
72'
L. Boyé← S. Baldock
74'
Duane Holmes
80'
Jayden Bogle
82'
Tyler Blackett
82'
Louie Sibley
83'
J. Marriott← M. Waghorn
86'
Craig Forsyth
86'
Y. MeïtéPenalty

Possession

59%Reading

Shots

14Reading

Pass accuracy

52%Reading

Statistics

ReadingDerby
Overview
59%Possession41%
14Total Shots16
6Corners6
8Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots16
7On Target6
4Off Target5
3Blocked5
8Inside Box7
6Outside Box9
Passing
59%Possession41%
528Total Passes356
468Accurate Passes297
89%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls17
2Yellow Cards8
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Championship: Reading 3–0 Derby

Reading beat Derby 3-0 in Championship on December 21, 2019.

Goals: C. Adam (5' pen), Lucas João (58'), Y. Meïté (86' pen).

Reading controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 16.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.