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Reading vs Charlton — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Reading
Reading
Preview
14:00
Charlton
Charlton
8/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
63%
Charlton
model favours
17%20%63%

Charlton have scored in 9 games running

brightest fact of this match

0–2
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Reading17%
×Draw20%
Charlton63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.00
Charlton
2.13

Charlton creates 113% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Reading
1.00
Charlton
2.60

allows per match

Reading
1.67
Charlton
1.00

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Reading or draw
37%
Reading or Charlton
80%
Draw or Charlton
83%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
6%
Charlton wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
63%
Reading 2+ goals
26%
Reading 3+ goals
8%
Charlton 1+ goals
88%
Charlton 2+ goals
63%
Charlton 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
21%
Charlton (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Charlton away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.00 + Charlton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Charlton attack 2.60 + Reading defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Reading scores more
17%
level
20%
Charlton scores more
63%

Charlton at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton score first in only 30% of matches
  • 70% of Charlton’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Reading
LWLDL
Charlton
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reading vs Charlton — Match Preview

Reading face Charlton on August 1, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.