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Reading vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
J. Paterson 62'
1/28/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 29Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading41%
×Draw26%
Bristol City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.44
Bristol City
1.25

Reading creates 15% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 188 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Bristol City
1.15

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Bristol City
1.49

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw
67%
Reading or Bristol City
74%
Draw or Bristol City
59%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
20%
Bristol City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
76%
Reading 2+ goals
42%
Reading 3+ goals
18%
Bristol City 1+ goals
71%
Bristol City 2+ goals
36%
Bristol City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
56%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.49 · 188 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Bristol City defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bristol City attack 1.15 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reading scores more
41%
level
26%
Bristol City scores more
33%

Reading at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
N. EliassonBristol CityBristol City · M
8.4

Match Events

33'
Famara Diédhiou
45'
Chris Gunter
62'
S. Baldock← G. Puşcaş
62'
J. Paterson↳ N. Eliasson
66'
Korey Smith
69'
Y. Meïté← T. Blackett
73'
S. Aluko← J. Swift
74'
Josh Brownhill
77'
C. O'Dowda← J. Paterson
90+2'
T. Moore← N. Eliasson

Possession

51%Reading

Shots

16Reading

Pass accuracy

50%Reading

Statistics

ReadingBristol
Overview
51%Possession49%
16Total Shots10
10Corners3
9Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots10
5On Target3
4Off Target4
7Blocked3
8Inside Box8
8Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
440Total Passes442
338Accurate Passes340
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Championship: Reading 0–1 Bristol City

Bristol City beat Reading 1-0 in Championship on January 28, 2020.

Goals: J. Paterson (62').

Reading controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.