Reading 2–1 Bolton: Result & Stats | League One

Reading

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bolton

C. Vickers 86'

C. Savage 77'

D. Charles 20'

9/16/2023

League One · Round 8Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Reading39%

×Draw26%

Bolton35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.29

Reading

1.39

Bolton

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.36

creates per match

1.51

1.06

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Reading

1.36

Bolton

1.51

allows per match

Reading

1.06

Bolton

1.41

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Reading+0.14scores more

Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw

65%

Reading or Bolton

74%

Draw or Bolton

61%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

18%

Bolton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

75%

Reading 2+ goals

40%

Reading 3+ goals

16%

Bolton 1+ goals

72%

Bolton 2+ goals

37%

Bolton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

53%

Bolton (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.06 · 12 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.36 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bolton attack 1.51 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reading scores more

39%

level

26%

Bolton scores more

35%

Reading at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Azeez

Reading · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

Ricardo Santos

16'

Eoin Toal

20'

D. Charles↳ K. Dempsey

30'

Dominic Ballard

38'

Randell Williams

56'

B. Elliott← H. Knibbs

56'

P. Mukairu← D. Ballard

72'

T. Mcintyre← C. Mola

75'

C. Jerome← V. Adeboyejo

75'

J. Iredale← R. Williams

76'

76'

77'

79'

81'

A. Mbengue← S. Hutchinson

82'

C. Vickers← K. Ehibhatiomhan

82'

D. Nlundulu← D. Charles

86'

C. Vickers↳ A. Mbengue

89'

J. Böðvarsson← J. Sheehan

90+2'

Charlie Savage

90+4'

Eoin Toal

90+4'

Eoin Toal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingBolton

Overview

49%Possession51%

18Total Shots10

6Corners4

17Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots10

7On Target5

8Off Target3

3Blocked2

9Inside Box9

9Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

396Total Passes402

272Accurate Passes276

69%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls15

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

League One: Reading 2–1 Bolton

Reading beat Bolton 2-1 in League One on September 16, 2023.

Goals: D. Charles (20'), C. Savage (77'), C. Vickers (86').

Bolton controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.

Reading vs Bolton — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Reading 2–1 Bolton