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RCA vs River Plate — Division di Honor 2019

RCA
RCA
FT
4 – 1
River Plate
River Plate
4/2/2023Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Play-offs Kaya 6 - 4Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

RCA54%
×Draw20%
River Plate26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCA
2.31
River Plate
1.55

RCA creates 49% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 43 away

creates per match

RCA
2.30
River Plate
1.95

allows per match

RCA
1.15
River Plate
2.33

finishing

RCA+0.00on par
River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCA ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

RCA or draw
74%
RCA or River Plate
80%
Draw or River Plate
46%

Winning margin

RCA wins by 2+
33%
River Plate wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

RCA 1+ goals
90%
RCA 2+ goals
67%
RCA 3+ goals
40%
River Plate 1+ goals
79%
River Plate 2+ goals
46%
River Plate 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

RCA (draw refunded)
68%
River Plate (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCA at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCA attack 2.30 + River Plate defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.31

River Plate attack 1.95 + RCA defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

RCA scores more
54%
level
20%
River Plate scores more
26%

RCA at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: RCA 4–1 River Plate

RCA beat River Plate 4-1 in Division di Honor on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.