Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Monchengladbach — Bundesliga 2026

RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Borussia Monchengladbach
Borussia Monchengladbach
J. Gvardiol 80'
E. Forsberg 71' (pen)
T. Werner 58'
3/11/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 24Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

RB Leipzig56%
×Draw21%
Borussia Monchengladbach23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Leipzig
2.04
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.24

RB Leipzig creates 65% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 38 away

creates per match

RB Leipzig
2.17
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.15

allows per match

RB Leipzig
1.33
Borussia Monchengladbach
1.92

finishing

RB Leipzig+0.30scores more
Borussia Monchengladbach-0.15scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig ↓

Borussia Monchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

RB Leipzig or draw
77%
RB Leipzig or Borussia Monchengladbach
79%
Draw or Borussia Monchengladbach
44%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig wins by 2+
33%
Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RB Leipzig 1+ goals
87%
RB Leipzig 2+ goals
60%
RB Leipzig 3+ goals
33%
Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals
71%
Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals
35%
Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig (draw refunded)
71%
Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.33 · 32 matches

Borussia Monchengladbach away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig attack 2.17 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.04

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 1.15 + RB Leipzig defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

RB Leipzig scores more
56%
level
21%
Borussia Monchengladbach scores more
23%

RB Leipzig at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "RB Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
J. GvardiolRB LeipzigRB Leipzig · D
8.2

Match Events

52'
David Raum
52'
Jonas HofmannPenalty confirmed
58'
T. Werner
71'
H. Wolf← F. Neuhaus
71'
E. ForsbergPenalty
72'
L. Stindl← A. Pléa
76'
Y. Poulsen← T. Werner
77'
M. Halstenberg← D. Raum
80'
J. Gvardiol↳ Y. Poulsen
87'
K. Kampl← K. Laimer
87'
Dani Olmo← E. Forsberg
87'
M. Simakan← A. Haidara
90+1'
P. Herrmann← J. Hofmann
90+1'
O. Fraulo← M. Koné
90+1'
S. Telalovic← M. Thuram

Possession

66%RB

Shots

14RB

Pass accuracy

53%RB

Statistics

RBBorussia
Overview
66%Possession34%
14Total Shots7
2.55Expected Goals (xG)1.60
11Corners0
9Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots7
9On Target3
3Off Target4
2Blocked0
11Inside Box6
3Outside Box1
Passing
66%Possession34%
693Total Passes354
606Accurate Passes269
87%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: RB Leipzig vs Borussia Monchengladbach

RB Leipzig beat Borussia Monchengladbach 3-0 in Bundesliga on March 11, 2023.

Goals: T. Werner (58'), E. Forsberg (71' pen), J. Gvardiol (80').

RB Leipzig controlled possession (66%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig.