RB Leipzig U19 2–3 Dynamo Dresden U19

RB Leipzig U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Dynamo Dresden U19

T. Kaufmann 90+2'

O. Köhl 12'

N. Orth 89'

L. Ehrlich 68' (pen)

C. Kosak 20'

11/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 9Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

RB Leipzig U1954%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Dresden U1925%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Leipzig U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.41

RB Leipzig U19

2.15

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.41

RB Leipzig U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 80 away

2.55

creates per match

1.55

1.27

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19

2.55

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.55

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19

1.27

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw

75%

RB Leipzig U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19

79%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19

46%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

33%

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

88%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

63%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

36%

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

76%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

41%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.55 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.15

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

54%

level

21%

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

25%

RB Leipzig U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

O. Köhl

20'

C. Kosak

28'

J. Saliger

28'

J. Saliger

46'

N. Atom← D. Ihendu

46'

C. Bräunling← E. Zeil

58'

Y. Freischlad← K. Pestel

65'

T. Menzel← C. Kosak

68'

L. EhrlichPenalty

73'

T. Kaufmann← V. Zaruba

75'

J. Hoffmann← L. Ehrlich

83'

J. Puphal← E. Lenz

83'

S. Mohammad← T. Meyer

89'

N. Orth← J. Oehmichen

89'

90+2'

90+4'

90+4'

90+2'

RB

Dynamo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ehrlich

J.Saliger

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Meyer

46'▲N. Atom←▼D. Ihendu

58'▲Y. Freischlad←▼K. Pestel

73'▲T. Kaufmann←▼V. Zaruba

83'▲J. Puphal←▼E. Lenz

83'▲S. Mohammad←▼T. Meyer

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

AtomFreischladKaufmannPuphalMohammadPrüfrockSiepler

Manager: W. Weisse

46'▲C. Bräunling←▼E. Zeil

65'▲T. Menzel←▼C. Kosak

75'▲J. Hoffmann←▼L. Ehrlich

89'▲N. Orth←▼J. Oehmichen

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

BräunlingMenzelHoffmannOrthSpicaKrauseDannat

U19 Bundesliga: RB Leipzig U19 2–3 Dynamo Dresden U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 beat RB Leipzig U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on November 12, 2022.

Goals: O. Köhl (12'), C. Kosak (20'), L. Ehrlich (68' pen), N. Orth (89'), T. Kaufmann (90+2').

The match was played at Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1 in Leipzig.

RB Leipzig U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RB Leipzig U19 2–3 Dynamo Dresden U19