RB Bragantino 1–1 Botafogo: Result & Stats

RB Bragantino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo

3/14/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 3rd RoundEstádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

RB Bragantino41%

×Draw32%

Botafogo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB BragantinoExpected goals in this matchBotafogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.80

RB Bragantino

1.07

Botafogo

0.80

RB Bragantino creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

0.75

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

RB Bragantino

1.00

Botafogo

0.86

allows per match

RB Bragantino

0.75

Botafogo

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Bragantino+0.00on par

Botafogo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino ↓

Botafogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

RB Bragantino or draw

73%

RB Bragantino or Botafogo

68%

Draw or Botafogo

59%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino wins by 2+

17%

Botafogo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

RB Bragantino 1+ goals

66%

RB Bragantino 2+ goals

29%

RB Bragantino 3+ goals

9%

Botafogo 1+ goals

55%

Botafogo 2+ goals

19%

Botafogo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)

61%

Botafogo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Botafogo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino attack 1.00 + Botafogo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Botafogo attack 0.86 + RB Bragantino defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

RB Bragantino scores more

41%

level

32%

Botafogo scores more

27%

RB Bragantino at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "RB Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff