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RB Bragantino U20 vs Mauá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

RB Bragantino U20
RB Bragantino U20
Preview
18:00
Mauá U20
Mauá U20
8/21/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 13
67%
RB Bragantino U20
model favours
67%20%14%

RB Bragantino U20 have scored in 21 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

RB Bragantino U2067%
×Draw20%
Mauá U2014%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Bragantino U20
2.10
Mauá U20
0.82

RB Bragantino U20 creates 156% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

creates per match

RB Bragantino U20
2.42
Mauá U20
0.61

allows per match

RB Bragantino U20
1.04
Mauá U20
1.78

finishing

RB Bragantino U20+0.00on par
Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

RB Bragantino U20 or draw
86%
RB Bragantino U20 or Mauá U20
80%
Draw or Mauá U20
33%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino U20 wins by 2+
42%
Mauá U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

RB Bragantino U20 1+ goals
88%
RB Bragantino U20 2+ goals
62%
RB Bragantino U20 3+ goals
35%
Mauá U20 1+ goals
56%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
20%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino U20 (draw refunded)
83%
Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino U20 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino U20 attack 2.42 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.10

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + RB Bragantino U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

RB Bragantino U20 scores more
67%
level
20%
Mauá U20 scores more
14%

RB Bragantino U20 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "RB Bragantino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When RB Bragantino U20 score first, they win 100% of the time
  • Mauá U20 score first in only 31% of matches
  • 71% of RB Bragantino U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • RB Bragantino U20 sit 3, Mauá U20 23 in the table
  • 33% of RB Bragantino U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • RB Bragantino U20 and Mauá U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DWWWW
U20
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RB Bragantino U20 vs Mauá U20 — Match Preview

RB Bragantino U20 face Mauá U20 on August 21, 2026 in this Paulista - U20 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.