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Rayon Sports vs Bugesera — National Soccer League 2019

Rayon Sports
Rayon Sports
FT
1 – 0
Bugesera
Bugesera
12/1/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 12Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Rayon Sports47%
×Draw28%
Bugesera25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayon Sports
1.35
Bugesera
0.91

Rayon Sports creates 48% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 97 away

creates per match

Rayon Sports
1.44
Bugesera
1.05

allows per match

Rayon Sports
0.76
Bugesera
1.27

finishing

Rayon Sports+0.00on par
Bugesera+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayon Sports ↓

Bugesera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rayon Sports or draw
75%
Rayon Sports or Bugesera
72%
Draw or Bugesera
53%

Winning margin

Rayon Sports wins by 2+
22%
Bugesera wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rayon Sports 1+ goals
74%
Rayon Sports 2+ goals
39%
Rayon Sports 3+ goals
15%
Bugesera 1+ goals
60%
Bugesera 2+ goals
23%
Bugesera 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rayon Sports (draw refunded)
65%
Bugesera (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayon Sports at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.76 · 95 matches

Bugesera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayon Sports attack 1.44 + Bugesera defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bugesera attack 1.05 + Rayon Sports defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rayon Sports scores more
47%
level
28%
Bugesera scores more
25%

Rayon Sports at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rayon Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayon Sports vs Bugesera

Rayon Sports beat Bugesera 1-0 in National Soccer League on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Kigali Pelé Stadium in Kigali.