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Rayo Zuliano vs Deportivo La Guaira — Primera División 2018

Rayo Zuliano
Rayo Zuliano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
7/8/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 18Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rayo Zuliano37%
×Draw28%
Deportivo La Guaira35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Zuliano
1.20
Deportivo La Guaira
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 148 away

creates per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.20
Deportivo La Guaira
1.22

allows per match

Rayo Zuliano
1.12
Deportivo La Guaira
1.20

finishing

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par
Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Zuliano ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rayo Zuliano or draw
65%
Rayo Zuliano or Deportivo La Guaira
72%
Draw or Deportivo La Guaira
63%

Winning margin

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals
70%
Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals
34%
Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)
51%
Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Zuliano at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 49 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.20 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rayo Zuliano scores more
37%
level
28%
Deportivo La Guaira scores more
35%

Rayo Zuliano at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rayo Zuliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Zuliano vs Deportivo La Guaira

Deportivo La Guaira beat Rayo Zuliano 1-0 in Primera División on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico José Encarnación Pachencho Romero in Maracaibo.