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Rayo Vallecano W vs Sporting Huelva W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Rayo Vallecano W
Rayo Vallecano W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Huelva W
Sporting Huelva W
10/28/2018Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 7Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 (Madrid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rayo Vallecano W46%
×Draw25%
Sporting Huelva W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Vallecano W
1.56
Sporting Huelva W
1.18

Rayo Vallecano W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 89 away

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano W
1.22
Sporting Huelva W
0.73

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano W
1.62
Sporting Huelva W
1.91

finishing

Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par
Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano W ↓

Sporting Huelva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano W or draw
71%
Rayo Vallecano W or Sporting Huelva W
75%
Draw or Sporting Huelva W
54%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+
23%
Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals
79%
Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals
46%
Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals
21%
Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals
69%
Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals
33%
Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)
62%
Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

Sporting Huelva W away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano W attack 1.22 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.73 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rayo Vallecano W scores more
46%
level
25%
Sporting Huelva W scores more
29%

Rayo Vallecano W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Rayo Vallecano W 1–0 Sporting Huelva W

Rayo Vallecano W beat Sporting Huelva W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 (Madrid).