Rayo Vallecano W 1–1 Barcelona W: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barcelona W

9/15/2019

Primera División Femenina · Round 2Estadio de Vallecas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rayo Vallecano W9%

×Draw14%

Barcelona W77%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano WExpected goals in this matchBarcelona W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

2.66

Rayo Vallecano W

0.78

Barcelona W

2.66

Barcelona W creates 241% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 119 away

1.22

creates per match

3.70

1.62

allows per match

0.34

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano W

1.22

Barcelona W

3.70

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano W

1.62

Barcelona W

0.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano W ↓

Barcelona W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–19%

0–212%

0–310%

0–47%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano W or draw

23%

Rayo Vallecano W or Barcelona W

86%

Draw or Barcelona W

91%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+

2%

Barcelona W wins by 2+

55%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals

54%

Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals

18%

Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals

4%

Barcelona W 1+ goals

93%

Barcelona W 2+ goals

74%

Barcelona W 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)

10%

Barcelona W (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 3.70, concedes 0.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano W attack 1.22 + Barcelona W defence 0.34 → ÷2 → 0.78

Barcelona W attack 3.70 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Rayo Vallecano W scores more

9%

level

14%

Barcelona W scores more

77%

Barcelona W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff