Rayo Vallecano W 0–3 Atletico Madrid W

Rayo Vallecano W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Madrid W

3/13/2019

Primera División Femenina · Round 23Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 4 (Madrid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rayo Vallecano W24%

×Draw23%

Atletico Madrid W52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo Vallecano WExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.77

Rayo Vallecano W

1.12

Atletico Madrid W

1.77

Atletico Madrid W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 118 away

1.22

creates per match

1.92

1.62

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano W

1.22

Atletico Madrid W

1.92

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano W

1.62

Atletico Madrid W

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano W or draw

48%

Rayo Vallecano W or Atletico Madrid W

77%

Draw or Atletico Madrid W

76%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+

9%

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals

67%

Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals

31%

Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals

10%

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

83%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

53%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)

31%

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano W attack 1.22 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.12

Atletico Madrid W attack 1.92 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rayo Vallecano W scores more

24%

level

23%

Atletico Madrid W scores more

52%

Atletico Madrid W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff