Rayo Vallecano W vs Athletic Club W — Primera División Femenina 2018
Primera División Femenina · Round 4Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5 (Stadium) (Madrid)Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 60+ matches
Rayo Vallecano W37%
Athletic Club W38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 60 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rayo Vallecano W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rayo Vallecano W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches
Athletic Club W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rayo Vallecano W attack 1.22 + Athletic Club W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39
Athletic Club W attack 1.21 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Athletic Club W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Athletic Club W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Barcelona W
Real Madrid W
Real Sociedad W
Granad. Tenerife W
Atletico Madrid W
GranadaAthletic Club W
Sevilla W
FC Levante Badalona W
Madrid CFF W
Espanyol W
Deportivo de La Coruña W
Eibar W
Edf Logrono W
Alhama W
Levante WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Rayo Vallecano W host Athletic Club W on Saturday, 29 September 2018 at 10:00. The match is part of the Primera División Femenina 2018/2019 season.
Primera División Femenina: Rayo Vallecano W 1–1 Athletic Club W
Rayo Vallecano W and Athletic Club W drew 1-1 in Primera División Femenina on September 29, 2018.
The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rayo Vallecano Campo 5 (Stadium) (Madrid).