Rayo Vallecano 0–2 Mallorca: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mallorca

Lee Kang-In 64'

V. Muriqi 13'

8/27/2022

La Liga · Round 3Estadio de Vallecas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Rayo Vallecano53%

×Draw25%

Mallorca23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo VallecanoExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.96

Rayo Vallecano

1.61

Mallorca

0.96

Rayo Vallecano creates 68% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 46 away

1.48

creates per match

0.93

0.99

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano

1.48

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano

0.99

Mallorca

1.74

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Rayo Vallecano-0.13scores less

Mallorca-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano or draw

77%

Rayo Vallecano or Mallorca

75%

Draw or Mallorca

47%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+

28%

Mallorca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals

80%

Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals

48%

Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals

22%

Mallorca 1+ goals

62%

Mallorca 2+ goals

25%

Mallorca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)

70%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 40 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano attack 1.48 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Rayo Vallecano defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rayo Vallecano scores more

53%

level

25%

Mallorca scores more

23%

Rayo Vallecano at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

V. Muriqi

Mallorca · F

7.7

Match Events

13'

V. Muriqi↳ Dani Rodríguez

57'

Bebé← Salvi

57'

Sergio Camello← Unai López

57'

Santi Comesaña← Ó. Trejo

62'

Clément Grenier

64'

Lee Kang-In

66'

Óscar Valentín

67'

Antonio Sánchez← C. Grenier

73'

Antonio Sánchez

74'

Javier Llabrés← Lee Kang-In

78'

R. Nteka← R. Falcao

79'

Copete

86'

José Ángel Pozo← Óscar Valentín

86'

Abdón Prats← V. Muriqi

87'

Ruíz de Galarreta← Dani Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RayoMallorca

Overview

65%Possession35%

15Total Shots9

7Corners3

11Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots9

0On Target4

4Off Target2

11Blocked3

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

536Total Passes302

449Accurate Passes224

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2