Rayo Vallecano 1–3 Mallorca: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Mallorca

L. Advíncula 41'

Salva Sevilla 19'

Abdón Prats 13'

A. Ndiaye 3'

1/23/2021

Segunda División · Round 22Estadio de Vallecas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rayo Vallecano42%

×Draw29%

Mallorca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo VallecanoExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.95

Rayo Vallecano

1.22

Mallorca

0.95

Rayo Vallecano creates 28% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 45 away

1.52

creates per match

0.93

0.96

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano

1.52

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano

0.96

Mallorca

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano+0.00on par

Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano or draw

71%

Rayo Vallecano or Mallorca

71%

Draw or Mallorca

58%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+

19%

Mallorca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals

70%

Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals

34%

Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals

12%

Mallorca 1+ goals

61%

Mallorca 2+ goals

25%

Mallorca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)

60%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano attack 1.52 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Rayo Vallecano defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rayo Vallecano scores more

42%

level

29%

Mallorca scores more

29%

Rayo Vallecano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Abdón Prats

Mallorca · F

8.5

Match Events

3'

A. Ndiaye↳ Abdón Prats

12'

13'

18'

19'

24'

E. Saveljich← E. Velázquez

29'

38'

41'

42'

46'

Andrés Martín← Isi Palazón

46'

Santi Comesaña← José Ángel Pozo

63'

Y. Qasmi← Bebé

71'

Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta

77'

Jonathan Montiel← Mario Suárez

78'

Dani Rodriguez

83'

L. Junior← Abdón Prats

89'

Febas← Salva Sevilla

89'

B. Cufré← A. Ndiaye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RayoMallorca

Overview

63%Possession37%

15Total Shots8

11Corners2

13Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots8

2On Target6

6Off Target2

7Blocked0

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

456Total Passes277

372Accurate Passes176

82%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2