Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Levante: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Levante

Raúl de Tomás 67'

Toño 23' (OG)

Rubén Rochina 60'

12/23/2018

La Liga · Round 17Estadio de Vallecas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Rayo Vallecano48%

×Draw25%

Levante27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo VallecanoExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.09

Rayo Vallecano

1.55

Levante

1.09

Rayo Vallecano creates 42% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 19 away

1.40

creates per match

1.18

1.01

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano

1.40

Levante

1.18

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano

1.01

Levante

1.71

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano-0.06on par

Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano or draw

73%

Rayo Vallecano or Levante

75%

Draw or Levante

52%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+

24%

Levante wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals

79%

Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals

46%

Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals

20%

Levante 1+ goals

66%

Levante 2+ goals

30%

Levante 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)

64%

Levante (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.01 · 35 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano attack 1.40 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Levante attack 1.18 + Rayo Vallecano defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rayo Vallecano scores more

48%

level

25%

Levante scores more

27%

Rayo Vallecano at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

S. Dimitrievski

Rayo Vallecano · G

8.0

Match Events

23'

ToñoOwn goal

43'

José Ángel Pozo← Álvaro García

58'

Sergio Postigo

60'

Rubén Rochina↳ José Luis Morales

67'

Raúl de Tomás

70'

Ó. Trejo← Adri Embarba

78'

M. Simon← E. Bardhi

78'

R. Dwamena← Roger Martí

80'

Ruben Rochina

88'

E. Boateng← Coke

90'

Stole Dimitrievski

90'

Giannelli Imbula

90+3'

Álex Alegría← Raúl de Tomás

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RayoLevante

Overview

41%Possession59%

18Total Shots12

3Corners5

13Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots12

8On Target7

6Off Target2

4Blocked3

9Inside Box8

9Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

292Total Passes419

222Accurate Passes314

76%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

6Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides7

La Liga: Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Levante

Rayo Vallecano beat Levante 2-1 in La Liga on December 23, 2018.

Goals: Toño (23' o.g.), Rubén Rochina (60'), Raúl de Tomás (67').

Levante controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio de Vallecas in Madrid.

Rayo Vallecano vs Levante — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

La Liga: Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Levante