Rayo Vallecano 2–3 Elche: Result & Stats

Rayo Vallecano

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Elche

Jonathan Montiel 88'

Mario Suárez 30' (pen)

Dani Escriche 79'

Pere Milla 67'

Óscar Gil 58'

3/8/2020

Segunda División · Round 31Estadio de Vallecas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Rayo Vallecano46%

×Draw27%

Elche27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo VallecanoExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.02

Rayo Vallecano

1.40

Elche

1.02

Rayo Vallecano creates 37% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 86 away

1.52

creates per match

1.07

0.96

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Rayo Vallecano

1.52

Elche

1.07

allows per match

Rayo Vallecano

0.96

Elche

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Vallecano+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Vallecano ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rayo Vallecano or draw

73%

Rayo Vallecano or Elche

73%

Draw or Elche

54%

Winning margin

Rayo Vallecano wins by 2+

22%

Elche wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rayo Vallecano 1+ goals

75%

Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals

41%

Rayo Vallecano 3+ goals

17%

Elche 1+ goals

64%

Elche 2+ goals

27%

Elche 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rayo Vallecano (draw refunded)

62%

Elche (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Vallecano at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Vallecano attack 1.52 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.40

Elche attack 1.07 + Rayo Vallecano defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rayo Vallecano scores more

46%

level

27%

Elche scores more

27%

Rayo Vallecano at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rayo Vallecano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Iván Sánchez

Elche · M

7.5

Match Events

30'

Mario SuárezPenalty

36'

Nino← Jonathas

45'

Luis Advíncula

45'

Manuel Sanchez

58'

Óscar Gil↳ Juan Cruz

61'

Jonathan Montiel← Ó. Trejo

61'

Juan Villar← Óscar Valentín

63'

Isi Palazón

67'

Pere Milla

71'

Andrés Martín← Luna

72'

Ramón Folch← Manuel Sánchez

73'

Oscar Regano

77'

Josán Fernández← Pere Milla

79'

Dani Escriche↳ Josán Fernández

84'

Antonio Milić

88'

Jonathan Montiel↳ Andrés Martín

90'

Alejandro Catena

90'

Fidel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RayoElche

Overview

48%Possession52%

17Total Shots13

3Corners4

20Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots13

9On Target5

4Off Target6

4Blocked2

7Inside Box8

10Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

296Total Passes310

215Accurate Passes223

73%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

20Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3