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Rayka Babol vs Malavan — Azadegan League 2018

Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
FT
0 – 1
Malavan
Malavan
12/6/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rayka Babol43%
×Draw32%
Malavan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayka Babol
1.08
Malavan
0.74

Rayka Babol creates 46% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Rayka Babol
1.08
Malavan
0.76

allows per match

Rayka Babol
0.73
Malavan
1.09

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw
75%
Rayka Babol or Malavan
68%
Draw or Malavan
57%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+
18%
Malavan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals
66%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
29%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
10%
Malavan 1+ goals
52%
Malavan 2+ goals
17%
Malavan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
64%
Malavan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Malavan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Malavan attack 0.76 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rayka Babol scores more
43%
level
32%
Malavan scores more
25%

Rayka Babol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayka Babol vs Malavan

Malavan beat Rayka Babol 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 6, 2019.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.