Ravshan 3–1 Regar-TadAZ: Result & Stats

Ravshan

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Regar-TadAZ

J. Akomadi 90+7'

E. Mwanengo 90+2'

S. Ofori 90'

N. Khamrokulov 51'

6/29/2023

Vysshaya Liga · Round 5Stadion im. Langari Langarieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Ravshan46%

×Draw27%

Regar-TadAZ27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RavshanExpected goals in this matchRegar-TadAZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.01

Ravshan

1.40

Regar-TadAZ

1.01

Ravshan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 89 away

1.44

creates per match

1.15

0.88

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Ravshan

1.44

Regar-TadAZ

1.15

allows per match

Ravshan

0.88

Regar-TadAZ

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

Regar-TadAZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw

73%

Ravshan or Regar-TadAZ

73%

Draw or Regar-TadAZ

54%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+

22%

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals

75%

Ravshan 2+ goals

41%

Ravshan 3+ goals

17%

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals

64%

Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals

27%

Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)

63%

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.88 · 73 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.44 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.15 + Ravshan defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ravshan scores more

46%

level

27%

Regar-TadAZ scores more

27%

Ravshan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

N. Khamrokulov

68'

A. Ergashev

68'

A. Ergashev

90'

S. Ofori

90+2'

E. Mwanengo

90+7'

J. Akomadi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff