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Raufoss vs Stabaek — 1. Division 2026

Raufoss
Raufoss
Preview
15:00
Stabaek
Stabaek
8/2/20261. Division1. Division · Round 16NAMMO Stadion
Big match
39%
Stabaek
model favours
37%24%39%

Stabaek score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Raufoss37%
×Draw24%
Stabaek39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss
1.54
Stabaek
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 53 away

creates per match

Raufoss
1.42
Stabaek
1.81

allows per match

Raufoss
1.34
Stabaek
1.66

finishing

Raufoss+0.00on par
Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss ↓

Stabaek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Raufoss or draw
61%
Raufoss or Stabaek
76%
Draw or Stabaek
63%

Winning margin

Raufoss wins by 2+
18%
Stabaek wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Raufoss 1+ goals
79%
Raufoss 2+ goals
45%
Raufoss 3+ goals
20%
Stabaek 1+ goals
79%
Stabaek 2+ goals
47%
Stabaek 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Raufoss (draw refunded)
49%
Stabaek (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss attack 1.42 + Stabaek defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Stabaek attack 1.81 + Raufoss defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Raufoss scores more
37%
level
24%
Stabaek scores more
39%

Stabaek at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 78% of Raufoss’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Raufoss score first in only 28% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (78% and 65% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 72% of Raufoss’s matches
  • 65% of Stabaek’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Raufoss sit 14, Stabaek 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Raufoss
WLWLL
Stabaek
WWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Raufoss vs Stabaek — Match Preview

Raufoss face Stabaek on August 2, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Raufoss host Stabaek at NAMMO Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.