Rapperswil 3–1 FC Chiasso: Result & Stats

Rapperswil

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Chiasso

3/17/2018

League #208 · Round 25Sportstadion Grünfeld (Jona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rapperswil49%

×Draw30%

FC Chiasso21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapperswilExpected goals in this matchFC Chiasso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.67

Rapperswil

1.21

FC Chiasso

0.67

Rapperswil creates 81% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

0.50

0.83

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Rapperswil

1.17

FC Chiasso

0.50

allows per match

Rapperswil

0.83

FC Chiasso

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapperswil+0.00on par

FC Chiasso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapperswil ↓

FC Chiasso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Rapperswil or draw

79%

Rapperswil or FC Chiasso

70%

Draw or FC Chiasso

51%

Winning margin

Rapperswil wins by 2+

22%

FC Chiasso wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rapperswil 1+ goals

70%

Rapperswil 2+ goals

34%

Rapperswil 3+ goals

12%

FC Chiasso 1+ goals

49%

FC Chiasso 2+ goals

15%

FC Chiasso 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Rapperswil (draw refunded)

71%

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapperswil at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

FC Chiasso away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapperswil attack 1.17 + FC Chiasso defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

FC Chiasso attack 0.50 + Rapperswil defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rapperswil scores more

49%

level

30%

FC Chiasso scores more

21%

Rapperswil at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rapperswil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff