Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rápido Bouzas vs Deportivo La Coruña II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
CANC
00:00
Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Estadio Baltasar Pujales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Rápido Bouzas38%
×Draw28%
Deportivo La Coruña II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rápido Bouzas
1.19
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 58 away

creates per match

Rápido Bouzas
1.33
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.16

allows per match

Rápido Bouzas
1.07
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.05

finishing

Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rápido Bouzas ↓

Deportivo La Coruña II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rápido Bouzas or draw
66%
Rápido Bouzas or Deportivo La Coruña II
72%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruña II
62%

Winning margin

Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
70%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
33%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
53%
Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rápido Bouzas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 76 matches

Deportivo La Coruña II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.33 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.16 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rápido Bouzas scores more
38%
level
28%
Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
34%

Rápido Bouzas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rápido Bouzas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rápido Bouzas vs Deportivo La Coruña II — Match Preview

Rápido Bouzas face Deportivo La Coruña II on March 15, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rápido Bouzas host Deportivo La Coruña II at Estadio Baltasar Pujales.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.