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Rápido Bouzas vs Arzúa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arzúa
Arzúa
10/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Baltasar Pujales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Rápido Bouzas50%
×Draw26%
Arzúa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rápido Bouzas
1.53
Arzúa
0.97

Rápido Bouzas creates 58% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 79 away

creates per match

Rápido Bouzas
1.33
Arzúa
0.86

allows per match

Rápido Bouzas
1.07
Arzúa
1.73

finishing

Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par
Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rápido Bouzas ↓

Arzúa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rápido Bouzas or draw
76%
Rápido Bouzas or Arzúa
74%
Draw or Arzúa
50%

Winning margin

Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
26%
Arzúa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
78%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
45%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
20%
Arzúa 1+ goals
62%
Arzúa 2+ goals
25%
Arzúa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
68%
Arzúa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rápido Bouzas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 76 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.33 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

Arzúa attack 0.86 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rápido Bouzas scores more
50%
level
26%
Arzúa scores more
24%

Rápido Bouzas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rápido Bouzas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Rápido Bouzas 2–0 Arzúa

Rápido Bouzas beat Arzúa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Baltasar Pujales in Vigo.