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Rapide Oued ZEM vs FAR Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
FT
1 – 1
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
12/24/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 13Stade Municipal (Oued Zem)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM30%
×Draw29%
FAR Rabat41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapide Oued ZEM
0.98
FAR Rabat
1.20

FAR Rabat creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 120 away

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.03
FAR Rabat
1.40

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.00
FAR Rabat
0.92

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw
59%
Rapide Oued ZEM or FAR Rabat
71%
Draw or FAR Rabat
70%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
11%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
62%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
26%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
8%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
70%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
34%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
42%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.03 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

FAR Rabat attack 1.40 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
30%
level
29%
FAR Rabat scores more
41%

FAR Rabat at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapide Oued ZEM vs FAR Rabat

Rapide Oued ZEM and FAR Rabat drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on December 24, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Municipal (Oued Zem).