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Rapide Oued ZEM vs Chabab Atl. Khenifra — Botola 2 2025

Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
10/2/2022Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 4Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM44%
×Draw31%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.15
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.80

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 44% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 120 away

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.07
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.79

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
0.82
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.22

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par
Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

Chabab Atl. Khenifra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw
75%
Rapide Oued ZEM or Chabab Atl. Khenifra
69%
Draw or Chabab Atl. Khenifra
56%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
19%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
68%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
32%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
11%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals
55%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals
19%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
63%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.82 · 44 matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.07 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 0.79 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
44%
level
31%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more
25%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapide Oued ZEM vs Chabab Atl. Khenifra

Rapide Oued ZEM and Chabab Atl. Khenifra drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.