Rapid vs Universitatea Craiova

Rapid

Preview

16:00

Universitatea Craiova

8/29/2026

Liga I · Round 7Superbet Arena - Giulesti

Big match

41%

Rapid

model favours

41%26%32%

Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Rapid41%

×Draw26%

Universitatea Craiova32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapidExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.19

Rapid

1.38

Universitatea Craiova

1.19

Rapid creates 16% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 155 away

1.63

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Rapid

1.63

Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

Rapid

1.00

Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rapid or draw

68%

Rapid or Universitatea Craiova

74%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

59%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+

19%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals

75%

Rapid 2+ goals

40%

Rapid 3+ goals

16%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

70%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

33%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)

56%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 100 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.63 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.38

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Rapid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rapid scores more

41%

level

26%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

32%

Rapid at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Rapid score first in only 18% of matches
Both teams score in 73% of Rapid’s matches
Top-of-the-table clash — Rapid 2 vs Universitatea Craiova 1
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Rapid

LDDWD

Craiova

WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff