Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rapid vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2026

Rapid
Rapid
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
3/29/2025Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 2Superbet Arena-Giulești

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Rapid42%
×Draw24%
Universitatea Craiova34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.57
Universitatea Craiova
1.40

Rapid creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.70
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

Rapid
1.43
Universitatea Craiova
1.44

finishing

Rapid+0.47scores more
Universitatea Craiova-0.38scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
66%
Rapid or Universitatea Craiova
76%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
58%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
21%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
79%
Rapid 2+ goals
46%
Rapid 3+ goals
21%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
75%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
41%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
55%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.43 · 6 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.44 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.70 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.57

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Rapid defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rapid scores more
42%
level
24%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
34%

Rapid at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Rapid 1–2 Universitatea Craiova

Universitatea Craiova beat Rapid 2-1 in Liga I on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Superbet Arena-Giulești in București.