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Rapid vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga I 2026

Rapid
Rapid
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
12/14/2022Liga ILiga I · Round 20Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Rapid51%
×Draw24%
Petrolul Ploiesti25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.69
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.11

Rapid creates 52% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.70
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.80

allows per match

Rapid
1.43
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.69

finishing

Rapid+0.47scores more
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.20scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
75%
Rapid or Petrolul Ploiesti
76%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
49%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
27%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
82%
Rapid 2+ goals
50%
Rapid 3+ goals
24%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
67%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
30%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
67%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.43 · 6 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.70 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.80 + Rapid defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rapid scores more
51%
level
24%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
25%

Rapid at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Rapid beat Petrolul Ploiesti 3-1 in Liga I on December 14, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.