Rapid 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti: Result & Stats

Rapid

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Petrolul Ploiesti

10/16/2019

Liga II · Round 12Stadionul Regie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Rapid36%

×Draw27%

Petrolul Ploiesti37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapidExpected goals in this matchPetrolul Ploiesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.27

Rapid

1.23

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 60 away

1.52

creates per match

1.57

0.97

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Rapid

1.52

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.57

allows per match

Rapid

0.97

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rapid or draw

63%

Rapid or Petrolul Ploiesti

73%

Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti

64%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+

15%

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals

71%

Rapid 2+ goals

35%

Rapid 3+ goals

13%

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

72%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

36%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)

49%

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.52 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.57 + Rapid defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rapid scores more

36%

level

27%

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

37%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff