Rapid 1–1 Dinamo Bucuresti: Result & Stats | Liga I

Rapid

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Bucuresti

J. Vojtuš 23'

C. Matei 20'

2/26/2022

Liga I · Round 28Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Rapid44%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Bucuresti31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapidExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bucuresti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.23

Rapid

1.51

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.23

Rapid creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.64

creates per match

1.03

1.44

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Rapid

1.64

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.03

allows per match

Rapid

1.44

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.39

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Rapid+0.56scores more

Dinamo Bucuresti-0.03on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rapid or draw

69%

Rapid or Dinamo Bucuresti

75%

Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti

56%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+

22%

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals

78%

Rapid 2+ goals

44%

Rapid 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

71%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

35%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.44 · 5 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.64 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.03 + Rapid defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rapid scores more

44%

level

25%

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

31%

Rapid at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

C. Matei

23'

J. Vojtuš

32'

Júnior Morais

43'

V. Morar← M. Ivanovski

45+1'

Balthazar Pierret

58'

Alexandru Dandea

60'

Y. Bnou Marzouk← A. Dandea

60'

R. Moise← A. Ioniță

67'

Dragoş Grigore

69'

R. Grădinaru← G. Torje

69'

Gabriel Moura← A. Buleică

70'

A. Stahl← A. Sefer

70'

A. Bălan← J. Vojtuš

75'

J. Rodríguez← A. Răuță

75'

A. Bani← A. Borduşanu

90+5'

Cristiano Pereira

Shots

Statistics

RapidDinamo

Overview

10Total Shots9

3Corners5

14Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots9

4On Target4

6Off Target5

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides4