Rapid Vienna 0–0 Lask Linz: Result & Stats

Rapid Vienna

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lask Linz

3/15/2024

Bundesliga · Championship Round - 1Allianz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Rapid Vienna40%

×Draw25%

Lask Linz35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapid ViennaExpected goals in this matchLask Linz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.33

Rapid Vienna

1.44

Lask Linz

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 130 away

1.65

creates per match

1.52

1.14

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Rapid Vienna

1.65

Lask Linz

1.52

allows per match

Rapid Vienna

1.14

Lask Linz

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid Vienna ↓

Lask Linz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rapid Vienna or draw

65%

Rapid Vienna or Lask Linz

75%

Draw or Lask Linz

60%

Winning margin

Rapid Vienna wins by 2+

19%

Lask Linz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rapid Vienna 1+ goals

76%

Rapid Vienna 2+ goals

42%

Rapid Vienna 3+ goals

18%

Lask Linz 1+ goals

74%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

38%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)

53%

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid Vienna at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.14 · 133 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid Vienna attack 1.65 + Lask Linz defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lask Linz attack 1.52 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rapid Vienna scores more

40%

level

25%

Lask Linz scores more

35%

Rapid Vienna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rapid Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff