Ranheim 4–1 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Ranheim

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Stabaek

M. Karlsen 59' (pen), 49'

K. Løkberg 20', 1'

O. Omoijuanfo 53'

4/2/2018

Eliteserien · Round 3Ranheim Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ranheim45%

×Draw23%

Stabaek32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RanheimExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.43

Ranheim

1.73

Stabaek

1.43

Ranheim creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 59 away

1.55

creates per match

1.10

1.75

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Ranheim

1.55

Stabaek

1.10

allows per match

Ranheim

1.75

Stabaek

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ranheim+0.00on par

Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranheim ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ranheim or draw

68%

Ranheim or Stabaek

77%

Draw or Stabaek

55%

Winning margin

Ranheim wins by 2+

24%

Stabaek wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ranheim 1+ goals

82%

Ranheim 2+ goals

52%

Ranheim 3+ goals

25%

Stabaek 1+ goals

76%

Stabaek 2+ goals

42%

Stabaek 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ranheim (draw refunded)

58%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranheim at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranheim attack 1.55 + Stabaek defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stabaek attack 1.10 + Ranheim defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ranheim scores more

45%

level

23%

Stabaek scores more

32%

Ranheim at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ranheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Karlsen

Ranheim · F

8.9

Match Events

1'

K. Løkberg↳ M. Karlsen

10'

20'

46'

49'

53'

O. Omoijuanfo↳ D. Granli

57'

S. Sandmæl← S. Sørløkk

59'

Mande Sayouba

59'

M. KarlsenPenalty

65'

T. Børkeeiet← M. Ovenstad

73'

Tonny Brochmann

78'

S. Solli← Ø. Storflor

79'

O. Brynhildsen← H. Vetlesen

82'

A. Helmersen← M. Karlsen

85'

Jeppe Moe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RanheimStabaek

Overview

40%Possession60%

15Total Shots16

3Corners7

10Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots16

7On Target3

4Off Target10

4Blocked3

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box10

Passing

40%Possession60%

351Total Passes518

260Accurate Passes408

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1