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Ranheim vs Sogndal — 1. Division 2026

Ranheim
Ranheim
Preview
16:00
Sogndal
Sogndal
11/1/20261. Division1. Division · Round 29EXTRA Arena
Big match
45%
Ranheim
model favours
45%23%32%

92% of Ranheim’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Ranheim45%
×Draw23%
Sogndal32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranheim
1.82
Sogndal
1.50

Ranheim creates 21% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 114 away

creates per match

Ranheim
2.07
Sogndal
1.33

allows per match

Ranheim
1.67
Sogndal
1.58

finishing

Ranheim+0.00on par
Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranheim ↓

Sogndal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ranheim or draw
68%
Ranheim or Sogndal
77%
Draw or Sogndal
55%

Winning margin

Ranheim wins by 2+
24%
Sogndal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ranheim 1+ goals
84%
Ranheim 2+ goals
54%
Ranheim 3+ goals
27%
Sogndal 1+ goals
78%
Sogndal 2+ goals
44%
Sogndal 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ranheim (draw refunded)
59%
Sogndal (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranheim at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.67 · 102 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranheim attack 2.07 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Ranheim defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ranheim scores more
45%
level
23%
Sogndal scores more
32%

Ranheim at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ranheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (92% and 71% over 2.5)
  • Ranheim score first in only 23% of matches
  • Both teams score in 88% of Sogndal’s matches
  • Sogndal score first in only 29% of matches
  • 71% of Sogndal’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 30% of Ranheim’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ranheim
LLWLD
Sogndal
LWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ranheim host Sogndal

November 1, 2026: Ranheim take on Sogndal in 1. Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ranheim host Sogndal at EXTRA Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.